How are the technology adoption curves modelled?

The technology adoption model calculates the pace and magnitude of technology impacts over time on work. It projects the likelihood of adoption of automating and augmenting technologies over the next one to 15 years.

What is the technology-task combination?

Faethm's Occupation Ontology lists over 5,000 jobs. Each job is comprised of a unique combination of work tasks from our set of over 26,000 tasks. Each work task encompasses a range of human abilities required to complete each task. And each of those tasks can be either automated or augmented by a technology in Faethm’s Technology Taxonomy. This technology impact on each task is called the technology-task (technology-task) combination.


How is the technology-task combination modelled?

Faethm has modelled a unique technology adoption curve for each technology-task combination. Each curve is combined with Support Vector Machine (SVM) predictions to create a probabilistic model of the likely availability and take-up for each of the technology-task combinations over the next 15 years.

The curve is influenced by global indicators which are derived as 150 features to determine technology adoption curves for a country and industry, as well as providing identification of a business’ maturity on the curve. The global indicators are applied to validate our prediction model and provide detailed analysis of an example set of country and industry technology adoption rates.

The result is incredibly precise insights on the impacts of technology on a workforce. The curves are regularly updated to reflect the most current technology adoption rates and advancements.


How is a PESTLE analysis used in the modelling?

Our modelling includes a PESTLE analysis per country, per industry, to consider external barriers to implementation as well as other assessments and measures of adoption including historic analysis, survey data, and proxies. These are used to specify:

  1. a) when the technology will be available
  2. b) the extent of total adoption
  3. c) the speed of adoption


How are global sectors used to classify technology adoption by sector?

The adoption rate not only depends on the country and its features, but on the maturity of the country’s sectors.  

The indicators used to classify the maturity of sectors are via the OECD global taxonomy of sector digital intensity (the extent to which each sector has implemented technology) and include:

  • the share of ICT tangible and intangible (e.g. software) investment
  • the share of purchases of intermediate ICT goods and services
  • the stack of robots per hundreds of employees
  • the share of ICT specialists in total employment
  • the share of turnover from online sales in each industry

These attributes help us better understand differences across sectors. We use these global sector taxonomy results to classify the technology adoption of each industry.


What are the three A’s of technology impacts?

The impacts of the 16 technology classes can be categorised as:

Automation: The capacity of technologies to entirely replace a job or large components of a job, causing the need to redefine jobs and/or re-deploy people. Automation is considered as job reduction.

Augmentation: The capability of technologies to supplement a job and create efficiency, therefore enabling a worker to gain capacity to do higher value work. Augmentation is considered capacity gain.

Addition: The addition of existing jobs or entirely new jobs to your workforce to implement, run, maintain, and govern emerging technologies. Addition is considered job creation.